20th-ranked Sun Devils set sights on Beavers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/08/2009 - Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 20th-ranked Arizona State Sun Devils return to the friendly confines of Wells Fargo Arena this evening, as they welcome the Oregon State Beavers to Tempe for a Pac-10 tussle.

Herb Sendek's Sun Devils are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and are 21-5 at Wells Fargo Arena over the past two campaigns. The team however, is coming off a split of its first two conference matchups, whipping Stanford on the road last Thursday (90-60), before falling to California in Berkeley last weekend (81-71). The loss was just the second this year for ASU, which had a eight- game win streak come to a close.

The Beavers opened the 2008-09 season with four straight losses, but since then, the team has won six of its last eight games to pull even at 6-6. OSU also opened league play a week ago and like the Sun Devils, split a pair of games, losing at UCLA (69-46), before salvaging the trip to Los Angeles two days later with a 62-58 overtime victory at USC. The victory snapped a dreadful 21-game losing streak in regular season Pac-10 play for the Beavers.

The Beavers lead the series with the Sun Devils by a count of 38-33, but it was ASU which swept the season series a year ago.

The Beavers have turned things around this year thanks to solid play at the defensive end of the floor. OSU is allowing just 61.6 ppg this year, as foes are shooting just .425 from the floor. Offensively, the team is generating a rather low average of 62.6 ppg, but the Beavers take full advantage of each trip up and down the floor, hitting on a solid .488 from the field. The team does have one of the conference's top offensive threats in Calvin Haynes, who is delivering on 58.5 percent of his shots, leading the team with nearly 18 points per outing (17.8). Omari Johnson ranks second in scoring at 10.9 ppg and leads the team with 5.7 rpg. The Beavers once again shot the ball very well (especially in the second half) in their win over USC, as the team converted 50 percent from the floor overall, and 7-of-15 from behind the arc. Roeland Schaftenaar led the way with 18 points. Haynes was a close second, coming off the bench with 16 points. Johnson finished off the double-digit scorers with 11 points.

The Sun Devils have been highly successful at both ends of the floor this season and are currently enjoying a +16.3 scoring margin. The team is shooting a stellar .510 from the field (nearly 40 percent from three-point range), leading to a healthy 76.1 ppg. The defensive effort has been equally impressive, holding opponents to a tad over 40 percent shooting and a meager 59.8 ppg. Forward James Harden is once again the focal point of the offensive gameplan, as he is shooting .547 from the floor, including a scorching .438 from three-point range. The result is a hefty 23.4 ppg. What makes Harden even more dangerous is his ability to help out on the boards (6.1 rpg), as well as in the passing lanes (second on the team with 64 assists). Jeff Pendergraph is another option in the frontcourt (14.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg), while the sharpshooting Rihards Kuksiks (10.6 ppg, .510 shooting, .527 from behind the arc) and Ty Abbott (10.2 ppg) add perimeter balance. The Sun Devils fell victim to a very accurate shooting performance from the hometown Golden Bears last weekend, as Cal connected on 58 percent from the floor, including hitting nine three- pointers. The hot shooting spoiled a terrific offensive performance from Harden, who poured in 26 points. Kuksiks and Pendergraph were productive as well, adding 16 points apiece. However, the rest of the team combined for a mere 13 total points in the loss.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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