Leafs' Kadri in for some heavy lifting

Hockey Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nothing says pressure like holding the weight of a Stanley Cup-starved city on your shoulders.

But regardless of how you look at it - fortunately or unfortunately - that is the reality for Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri.

The 19-year-old London native will be given every opportunity this summer to shed his penciled-in status on coach Ron Wilson's roster in exchange for a permanent position on the blue and white.

To do so, Kadri will not only have to bulk up - despite already adding 15 pounds of muscle this offseason - and improve his defensive play, he will need to grow a thick skin in order to survive in this hockey-crazed market.

And it certainly won't be an easy thing to do after the Boston Bruins nabbed highly touted prospect Tyler Seguin with Toronto's second overall pick in this year's draft, leaving Kadri as the young messiah in a devout hockey Mecca.

Luke Schenn, the Leafs' fifth overall pick in 2008, once wore this crown, but the expectations of a sturdy stay-at-home defender are modest in comparison to a dynamic offensive juggernaut.

While it might be early to group Kadri under the "dynamic offensive juggernaut" umbrella, his performance up-to-date has certainly warranted heightened expectations.

After nearly cracking the Leafs' roster out of training camp a season ago, Kadri returned to his junior team, the Ontario Hockey League's London Knights, and lit the league on fire.

He finished tied for fourth in scoring with 93 points in 56 games, while racking up another 27 in 12 playoff games and earning a spot on Canada's World Junior team.

The silky-smooth forward also brings along a strong pedigree, having been pumped out of Dale Hunter's hockey machine in London.

Hunter breeds professionalism, respect and responsibility - all culminating factors that have helped transform Kadri from a skill player into a complete player.

Just take a look at the likes of Corey Perry and Dave Bolland, two flashy forwards in London who parlayed the hard-knock lessons of Hunter into NHL success and Stanley Cup rings.

That's not to say Kadri will follow the fate of the two former Knights, but it does speak volumes to the type of player that Kadri can become: an in your face, pain-in-the-you-know-what, point-producing competitor.

Toronto general manager Brian Burke recently said to the National Post that Kadri could potentially be to the Leafs what Matt Duchene was to the Colorado Avalanche last season.

While that would be ideal, it would not be surprising to see him start the season with the Toronto Marlies of the American Hockey League.

Burke gave the same treatment to Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Bobby Ryan in Anaheim and assigned Tyler Bozak for AHL duty last year despite his impressive audition at training camp.

The bottom line is that Kadri will have to earn a spot and prove that he can be a consistent contributor on a club in dire need of a significant resurgence.

If all goes to plan, Kadri will be celebrating his 20th birthday on the eve of the kickoff to the 2011 campaign as a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Suiting up against the rival Montreal Canadiens - his favorite team growing up - on opening night would be icing on the cake.

Flslottery Hockey Betting News

<< Blue Jays' Anthopoulos building on youth
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When your pockets aren't deep and you live in the American League East, you need to do things a little differently. With a new general manager in town, it seems as though the Toronto Blue Jays have finally com

<< Orioles recall INF Bell
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles recalled infielder Josh Bell from Triple-A Norfolk on Friday, a move that coincided with the club placing catcher Matt Wieters on the 15-day disabled list on Thursday with a right h

<< CFL East: Trying to separate fact from fiction
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding themselves in a division trying to find itself. A contradicting start to the season has

<< Royals start homestand with Oakland in town
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams trying to climb into contention in the American League start up their post-All Star break schedules this evening at Kauffman Stadium, where the Kansas City Royals open up a six-game homestand with the first o

<< Mets in search of better showing in San Francisco
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - How the New York Mets fare on the road over the season's second half could ultimately determine the team's postseason fate. After being shut out in the opener of an important West Coast swing on Thursday, Jerry Manuel'

NBA summer leagues shed more light on the draft >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year's rookie crop got its first taste of the NBA in the recently completed Orlando Summer League and the one in Las Vegas which concludes on Sunday. Though it's not the competition the player will see in th

Celtic adds Murphy from Sunderland >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celtic have completed the signing of Sunderland striker Daryl Murphy on a three-year contract. The 27-year-old joins fellow Bhoys newcomers Charlie Mulgrew, Joe Ledley and Cha Du-Ri in Neil Lenn

Warriors' sale could mean tough sell for NBA in upcoming CBA fight >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is an adage in politics - never let a serious crisis go to waste. In these tough economic times, rank and file workers across America have never been more suspicious of management. Most agree that

Podolski claims he is committed to Cologne >>
Cologne, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cologne's Germany international forward Lukas Podolski has vowed to stay with his current club this summer, despite links with a possible big-money move abroad. The 25-year-old enjoyed a fine Worl

NL East: With playoffs in sight, Braves make a switch at short >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It appears as though the Atlanta Braves got tired of waiting for Yunel Escobar. The Braves dealt the 27-year-old shortstop to the Blue Jays on Wednesday in a five-player trade that sent 33-year-old Alex Gonzalez to the Bra

Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.